NGX Market Recap – Tuesday, September 30, 2025

The Nigerian equities market posted a modest +0.23% gain today, closing the month at 142,377.56 points and extending its impressive +38.31% YTD return. Volumes surged to 1.21B (vs. 383.91M prior), and turnover skyrocketed +143.48% to ?28.26B. Despite the bullish price print, the market breadth was slightly negative at 0.89x, with more decliners (35) than advancers (31), signaling a mild undercurrent of profit-taking. Notably, unusually heavy institutional flows dominated aggregate volumes, with FIDELITYBK taking center stage in both volume and value. On the currency front, the Naira softened another -0.06% to close at ?1,486/$1.

Key Trends

• Market Breadth: Sell-side pressure remains visible as decliners outpaced gainers (35 vs. 31). However, strong institutional buying offset some breadth deterioration.
• Turnover & Volume: Explosive turnover (+143.48% d/d) and volumes suggest a decisive participation spike, likely driven by major block trades in banking stocks, especially FIDELITYBK (793M shares; 2,328% of 90D avg).
• Institutional Dominance: Institutions accounted for 88.7% of traded volume and 93.85% of value, signaling renewed "smart money” engagement near quarter-end.
• Sectoral Action: Trades and bullish momentum concentrated in Banking (FIDELITYBK, ZENITHBANK), Oil & Gas (ARADEL), and select Industrials.

Daily Top Gainers & Losers

Deeper Insights & Hidden Patterns

• YTD & Momentum Trends:
  • Leading YTD gainers like THOMASWY (+108.95% YTD), EUNISELL (+104.98%), and TIP (+484.00%) also feature strong short-term momentum, with RSI readings in the 60-75 zone, indicating aggressive buying but still shy of "overbought” warning (RSI 70+), hinting at ongoing rally potential.
  • TIP stands out for cross-overlap: featured among top daily gainers, 5D leaders, and bullish momentum, with a robust jump in RSI (from 55.7?60.7)—suggesting high momentum persistence.
  • UNIONDICON is a notable YTD loser and also today’s biggest loser. Its RSI has fallen sharply to 41.2, and its MACD remains negative—warning of continued distribution/weak hands.
  • CHAMPION appears in both the list of top losers for the day and YTD—a signal of possible prolonged sell pressure.
• Volume & Turnover:
  • FIDELITYBK posted an extraordinary +2,328% jump in volume vs. its 90-day average, driven predominantly by institutional demand. This high-volume, high-momentum move, accompanied by an RSI of 52.5 and a price break above its 15DMA, signals potential campaign from large buyers.
  • NCR registered an astonishing +121,741% volume explosion relative to average, signaling either news-related re-rate or possible block trade.
  • Several other names (VITAFOAM, EUNISELL, GEREGU) displayed elevated activity, hinting at underlying reallocation themes by institutional funds.
• Bullish Momentum Standouts:
  • TRANSCORP, FIDELITYBK, VITAFOAM: All breaking above their 15DMA and not yet overbought (RSI<70), supported by healthy price and volume action.
  • CONHALLPLC (Insurance): Positive RSI of 52.4, price up +3.16%, and in the bullish table — appears to be drawing sectoral rotation.
  • Bullish momentum in ARADEL is buttressed by strong MACD (21.68) and RSI (60.5), plus active institutional flows — further confirming "smart money" accumulation.
• Bearish Momentum Names ("At Risk”):
  • WAPCO, ETI, ETRANZACT closed below 15DMA, signaling building persistent weakness. None have deeply "oversold” RSI (<30), but downward MACD crossovers and negative price moves are red flags for short-term traders.
• Dividend Yield & Beta Matrix - Defensive Angle:
  • FIDELITYBK (Yield 5.48%, Beta 0.89): Now showing high institutional interest and momentum—provides both growth and income, but Beta near ASI signals moderate risk.
  • VITAFOAM (Yield 7.03%, Beta 0.47): Strong upward momentum, defensive Beta, and high dividend. Can appeal to risk-averse yield-seekers.
  • VITAFOAM and FIDELITYBK are present in bullish momentum tables and may be offering low-beta "momentum + income” play.
• Institutional Clustering:
  • ZENITHBANK grabbed 20.17% of institutional trade value. With 400 trades and 47.8M shares, the bank remains a liquidity magnet; however, price action closed a bit lower (-0.86%) hinting at supply absorption.
  • ARADEL’s 13.7% trade share and strong price gains (+9.82%) back the narrative of institutional-led markup.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW (CHAMPION): Despite a middling RSI (44.1) and a mildly bearish MACD (-0.22), YTD performance is deeply negative (-9.8%). Yet, there’s no oversold signal (RSI > 30), and daily volumes remain subdued—potential accumulation under the radar, or just value trap?
• STANBIC IBTC ETF 30: Reports negative price change (-8.9%) but still with a positive MACD (9.4), and a neutral RSI (53.0). This mismatch suggests possible mean reversion rally, but near-term technicals remain cloudy.
• VITAFOAM: Yielding 7.03%, Beta 0.47, with price up on high volume and breaking above 15DMA, yet no "overbought” RSI warning—can its "Goldilocks” momentum continue without correction?
• FIDELITYBK: RSI not yet high (52.5), but the massive volume spike and 15DMA-break signals potential institutional campaign, though risk of profit-taking in upcoming sessions is real.

Sector Heatmap & Technicals

Dividend Yield vs. Beta Matrix – Defensive Opportunities

Market Activity & Trades Summary

• Institutional Investors:
  • Accounted for 88.7% of market volume and a staggering 93.85% of value despite being only 36.82% of trade count, underlining the dominance of large-block trades.
  • Top institutional symbols: FIDELITYBK (total block: 790M shares), ZENITHBANK (47.8M), UBA, ARADEL, ACCESSCORP.
  • Pattern: These names also show either bullish momentum (FIDELITYBK, ARADEL) or defensive characteristics (ZENITHBANK stable, despite minor price dip).
• Retail Investors:
  • Contributed 63% of trades but only 11.3% of volume – concentrated in STERLINGNG, MTNN, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO.
  • Retail "hot” stocks: All in Banking or Telcos sector, but without the volume "muscle” of institutional trades. Retail herd may be following sector rotation notices.
• Actionable Take-Away: When volume/turnover spikes are institutionally led and also coinciding with technical price breaks (as in FIDELITYBK), traders should watch for "follow through” the next session—momentum may persist, but risk of profit takers also rises.

Year-To-Date Top 5 Gainers

Year-To-Date Top 5 Losers

Suggestions & Trade Opportunities

• Momentum traders: Watch for continued follow-through in FIDELITYBK, TIP, ETERNA, and VITAFOAM. "Smart money” inflows are not exhausted, but be alert for profit-taking after such sharp moves.
• Contrarians: Monitor CHAMPION, WEMABANK, UNIONDICON, which are oversold on YTD and short-term timeframes—but lack clear reversal signals for new entries.
• Yield-seekers: FIDELITYBK and VITAFOAM offer attractive yields with current positive momentum and low to moderate Beta (risk).
• Risk warning: Many top gainers are approaching short-term RSI resistance (60–70); do not chase parabolic moves unless supported by fresh institutional volume.
• Sector/ETF Tracker: Monitor STANBIC ETF for mean-reversion trades as technical signals diverge.
• For next session: Watch the reaction in FIDELITYBK and ARADEL — if institutional flows persist alongside price gain, momentum could accelerate.

Hidden Insights:
- FIDELITYBK and VITAFOAM are standout momentum/income hybrids with high institutional interest.
- Heavy institutional clustering in top banking stocks strengthens support under the broader market.
- Caution: Many hot names are now near multi-day RSI peaks; downside volatility may surprise late entrants.
- NCR is worth investigating for non-fundamental volume surge.
- Dividend high-yielders like WAPCO and CONHALLPLC offer potential for defensive returns, but technical momentum currently diverges.
- Banking/Financials remain both a value and momentum play, especially large caps with strong block flows.